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Society of Petroleum Engineers, South Australia | Events | Event Details | SPE-SA February 2026 Distinguished Lecturer
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SPE-SA February 2026 Distinguished Lecturer

Event Details
Event Date 9th Feb 2026
Time 12PM for 12:30 start
 
Registration Details
Closing Date 6th Feb 2026
Registrations Available 43
SPE Member $50.00 ea
Students $20.00 ea
General $75.00 ea
Register Now!
Description

Monday 9th February, 2026

Ayers House, 288 Nth Terrace

From 12:30pm for 12:30pm start

$50 Members

$20 Students

$75 Non-Members

Lunch and drinks provided

RSVP by COB 6th February

Reidar B Bratvold (DL):

Reidar would like the members to take away one key idea: Unbiased probabilistic production forecasts are a crucial component in making value-creating investment decisions, but typical methods result in persistent, value-destroying biases. There are quick and easy ways to make accurate, unbiased forecasts. Increased awareness of uncertainty, combined with increasingly sophisticated tools and models for quantifying it, is causing a shift from deterministic to probabilistic production forecasting. For these forecasts to lead to better investment decisions (e.g. assessing how much it’s worth paying to reduce uncertainty, or incorporating flexibility to manage it), they need to be an accurate (unbiased) representation of the uncertainty. However, our industry has a general history of overconfidence (ranges too narrow) and, more damaging for value[1]creation, optimism (consistent over-estimation). A large dataset of historical probabilistic production forecasts was investigated for potential bias by comparing them with actual outcomes. They were found to be both optimistic and overconfident, bringing into question their usefulness for decision-making and the value of the sophisticated uncertainty modelling techniques that were used to generate them. Fortunately, there are quick and easy methods for creating accurate probabilistic forecasts. We describe these and show that they would have produced accurate forecasts for our case study fields (they do not make use of knowing the actual outcomes!). Finally, preliminary results from a similar analysis of renewables projects indicate that the same problems exist. This could significantly impact government and company investment decisions and policy development in renewable projects.

Bio: Reidar Bratvold is a Professor of Investment & Decision Analysis at the University of Stavanger, specializing in decision analysis, data analytics, and behavioural challenges in decision-making. After 15 years of industry experience in technical and leadership roles, Reidar transitioned to academia, where he has contributed significantly to his fields of expertise. He co-authored 'Making Good Decisions,' has served as an SPE Distinguished Lecturer, and received the 2017 SPE Management & Information Award. A Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals and the Norwegian Academy of Technological Sciences, Reidar earned his PhD in Engineering and MSc in Mathematics from Stanford University.
Venue
Venue Ayers House
Address 288 North Terrace
 
Contact
Email functions@spe-sa.org