Notice (8): Undefined variable: eventItem [ROOTmodules/events/public/controller.php, line 450]
Society of Petroleum Engineers, South Australia | Events | Event Details | SPE July Sundowner
Loading slideshow

Join SPE

Click here to join SPE SA

Learn More

Luncheon Meetings

Hear from guest speakers

Learn More

Social Events

The perfect time to catch up

Learn More

Upcoming EventsUpcoming Events

1/7/26 SPE July Sundowner

SPE-SA July Technical Sundowner ... Read More »

Latest NewsLatest News

23.2.21 2020 South Australian SPE Scholarship Awards Presented

2020 South Australian SPE Scholarship Awards Presented The South Australian SPE scholarships are awarded annually to outstanding students in the fiel ... Read More »

15.4.20 2020 PESA/SPE Golf Day - Successful fundraising despite cancellation

2020 PESA/SPE Golf Day - Successful fundraising despite cancellation We are pleased to let you know that despite the 2020 PESA/SPE Golf Day being c ... Read More »

1.4.20 A Notice to Members - March/April 2020 Events postponed

The SPE SA Section committee would like to advise that in response to the latest developments of coronavirus COVID-19 and in line with advice from the ... Read More »

26.7.18 SA/NT PESA-SPE Golf Day above par

SA/NT PESA-SPE Golf Day above par By Jo-Anne (Santos) They came, they played and they conquered the greens…..well sort of! Just under 100 pla ... Read More »

« Click here to go back

SPE July Sundowner

Event Details
Event Date 1st Jul 2026
Time From 5:30PM
 
Registration Details
Closing Date 29th Jun 2026
Registrations Available 50
SPE Member $30.00 ea
Students $15.00 ea
General $50.00 ea
Register Now!
Description

Wednesday 1st July

Wakefield Hotel 76 Wakefield Street

From 5:30pm for 6:00pm start

$30 Members

$15 Students

$50 Non-Members

Nibbles and Drinks Provided

RSVP by 29 June

Steve Begg, Emeritus Professor, UoA

Summary/ Abstract: The talk will start by “lifting the lid” on the so-called black-box of Monte Carlo Simulation – to show that there is not a lot there!  Yet it is a very robust (hard to make mistakes) and powerful technique - ideal for correctly calculating outcome probabilities for “complicated”,  real-world, uncertain situations, such as football tournaments or O&G projects.  I will demonstrate:

    • the subjective nature of probability assignments;

    •  the relationship between uncertainty, variability and data (busting the myth that you need “data” or frequencies to do useful MC Sim!)

    •  why you usually need to do MC Sim, even if you are not interested in the uncertainty of an output (e.g. just want an average production profile)

    •  what it means for a probability to be correct/accurate – and how to assess that

    •  that very simple models of uncertainty in complex systems can produce accurate probabilities of their outcomes.

I will describe the methodology used for simulating the World Cup, calculating the probabilities that each team will progress to any given stage, present the results and address their accuracy based on past outcomes.  Even if you are not interested in football, you should get something out of it!

Bio: Steve Begg is an Emeritus Professor at Adelaide University, where his focus was on tools and processes for decision-making under uncertainty - including psychological factors and eliciting expert opinions, and on project/asset/portfolio economic evaluation.

Before joining The University of Adelaide in 2002, Steve was Director for Decision Science and Strategic Planning with Landmark (a Halliburton company).  Prior to that, he worked 6 years for BP Alaska in a variety of senior geoscience and engineering technical roles that spanned reservoir characterization, production forecasting and economic evaluation. He also spent 7 years as a researcher and Project Manager with BP Research, where his focus was on subsurface uncertainty and variability modelling.

He has twice been a Distinguished Lecturer for the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) on uncertainty & decision-making topics. In 2014 he was elected to the Board of the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP).  In 2016 he received the SPE’s top international award for the Management & Information discipline for his work on biases in decision-making.

Steve has published numerous papers on topics such as investment evaluation/economics, decision-making, psychology of expert judgements.  He is co-author, with Reidar Bratvold, of the SPE book “Making Good Decisions”, has given many industry short-courses and workshops, and is a frequent keynote speaker at conferences.

He holds a PhD degree in Geophysics and a BSc degree in Geological Geophysics from Reading University in the UK and has taken executive education courses at MIT and U. Texas, Austin.
Venue
Venue Wakefield Hotel
Address 76 Wakefield St
 
Contact
Email functions@spe-sa.org